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EXPLANATION

This table is part of a upcoming publication. Author is Hans-Joachim Maes, W+D Wissenschaft + Dokumentation GmbH (W+D: translated: Science + Documentation), www.wissdok.com, email: wissdok@compuserve.com

 

WHO/TFI held "Public Hearings" in October 2000 on a planned "Framework Convention on Tobacco Control" ("FCTC") in Geneva. WHO/TFI collected own materials and made them available on the internet.

In most of those files WHO/TFI had given data concerning

* Smoker populations

* Number of smokers killed

* Estimations: how much smokers will be killed

* Estimations: Distribution of smoker deaths in different regions

* Relation: Smokers and percentage of smokers killed due to smoking

All those data are documented in this table, beginning May 1996.

To show the alterations/developments in the WHO/TFI-data the original files were sorted in ascending order: The oldest file is No. 1, the newest Nr. 52.

The number in ( ) is the page number of the original file. The purpose is make it easy to proof that the source is quoted correctly. All sources (files) can be downloaded from the WHO/TFI's Website.

Source

Smokers; Deaths; Future Trends

Percentage of Smokers killed; Definitions

01

May 1996: Fact Sheet 118/ The Tobacco Epidemic: A global public health emergency

Smokers wordwide: 1.1 billion (1)

China: 300 million (1)

In "early 1990s": around 3 million deaths/year (3)

2020s or early 2030: 10 million deaths/year, 70% in developing countries (3)

Statement: "The chief uncertainty is not whether these deaths will occur, but exactly when" (3)

50%

middle age: 35-69

Quote: "Among those who continue to smoke throughout their lives, about half can be expected to die from a smoking-related cause, with half of those deaths occuring in middle age." (2)

02

May 1997: Fact Sheet 156/ The Tobacco Epidemic rages on in Eastern and Central Europe

Deaths 1995 in Europe: 1,2 million (14% of all deaths in the European Region of the WHO) (1)

old age: 70

middle age: 35-69 (1)

middle age: loss of 21 years of life (1)

03

May 1997: Fact Sheet 157/ Tobacco Epidemic in the Russian Federation kills 750 people every single day

In Russian Federation: 280 000 deaths/year; 32% of all male deaths, 5% of all female deaths (1)

 

04

August 1997: Fact Sheet 175/ Tobacco Epidemic in the Western Pacific

Current: 3 million people killed/year (1)

2025: 10 million people killed/year; 7 million in developing world, 2 million in China (1)

50 million "of all the children alive in China now" will be killed (1)

50%; Quote: "On average, lifetime smokers have a 50% chance of dying from tobacco. And half of these will die in middle age (age 35-69), losing more than 20 years of normal life expectancy." (1)

middle age: 35-69

middle aged people: loss of "more than 20 years" of life (1)

05

August 1997: Fact Sheet 176/ Smoking and Women

Current: 200 million female smokers in the world (1)

Current: 3 million people killed/year; "More than half a million of these deaths occur in women." (1)

in 2020: "doubled death toll": "more than a million women will die each year from tobacco." (2)

 

06

August 1997; Fact Sheet 177/ Smoking in China: A Time Bomb for the 21st Century

Smokers wordwide: 1.2 billion; will increase by year 2025 to 1.5 billion (1)

China: 300 million (1)

Current: "around three-quarters of a million deaths/year" (= around 750.000 deaths); by 2020: 2 millionen annual death (2)

25% (50 million death out of 200 million children and young people under age of 20 years alive today in China) (2)

07

May 1998 (Revision), Fact Sheet 159/ Governments for a Tobacco-Free World

"250 million of today's children will die prematurely from an avoidable cause--tobacco use" (1)

 

08

May 1998: Fact Sheet 154/ Tobacco Epidemic: Health Dimensions

Smokers wordwide: 1.1 billion; 800 million in developing countries (1)

Current: 3,5 million killed/year (2)

2020s or early 2030: 10 million deaths/year (2)

Quote: "half a billion people now alive will be killed by tobacco products" (2)

Chinas: 300 million smokers, and: "around 50 million Chinese, who are now under 20 years of age, will eventually be killed by tobacco" (2)

50%; Quote: "On average, lifetime smokers have a 50% chance of dying from tobacco. And half of these will die in middle age, before age seventy, losing 22 years of normal life expectancy." (2)

middle age: 35-69

middle age: loss of 22 years of life

09

May 1998: Fact Sheet155/ Tobacco Epidemic: Much more than a health issue

Just: "Thousands of lives can be spared ..." (3)

 

10

May 1998: Fact Sheet195/ Tobacco or health in Brazil

Current: 3,5 million killed/year (1)

 

11

May 1998: Fact Sheet 196/ Tobacco Epidemic in Latin America

Current: 400 Latin Americans killed every day, 150.000 per year (1)

2020: 400.000 killed/year (1)

 

12

May 1998: Fact Sheet197/

"Babies born to women who smoke during pregnancy, as well as those infants exposed to ETS (= "Environmental Tobacco Smoke") have a significant greater risk of dying of sudden infant death syndrom" (2)

 

13

Press Release WHO/4, 30.1.1999/ WHO launches partnership with the pharmaceutical industry to help smokers quit

Current: 200 million smokers in Europe (2)

Current: 1,2 million smokers killed in WHO's European Region(14% of all deaths in this region) (1)

will increase to 2 million deaths/year by 2020 (then 20% of all deaths) (2)

 

14

Press Release WHO/94, 10.12.1998/ WHO welcomes British Tobacco White Paper

Current: 3,5 million killed/year (1)

2030: 10 million killed; 70% in developing countries (1)

 

15

1.2.1999: Press Release WHO/6/WHO Executive board gives green light to Framework Convention on Tobacco Control

1998: 3,5 million killed (1)

2030: 10 million killed; 70% in developing countries (1)

 

16

3.3.1999: Press Release WHI/15/ WHO says global tobacco control is about saving lives, not profit lines, and invites tobacco farmers worldwide to back its efforts

2020: 10 million killed; 70% in developing countries (1)

China: Current: 75.000 people killed; will increase to 3 million "by the time today's young smokers reach middle age". (1)

Remark: Compared with section 06 this is a remarkable decrease: from 750.000 killed down to 75.000

 

17

April 1999: Fact Sheet 221/ Tobacco - Health facts

Smokers: At beginning 90s: 1.1 billion; 300 million in developed countries, 800 million in developing countries (2)

Current: 4 million killed/year, one death every 8 seconds (1)

2030: 10 million killed, one death every three seconds (1)

and: "tobacco will kill more than 100 million people in the first two decades of the 21st century" (1)

and: "500 million people alive today will be killed by tobacco" (1)

and: "hundreds of millions" will be killed in the decades after 2030 (if no prevention would be established) (1)

China: 100 million (out of 300 million) Chinese will be killed, "half the deaths will be among those aged 35-69" (1)

50% and:

33% (see the China-data)

Quote to "50% killed: "The truth is that one out of every two long-term smokers will ultimately be killed by tobacco. In developed countries, half will be killed in old age, after age seventy, but the other half will be killed in middle age, before age seventy, and those who die from smoking before age seventy will lose more than 20 years of life expectancy." (1)

18

April 1999: Fact Sheet 222/ Tobacco Dependence

Current: 1.1 billionen smokers ("At least one-third of the global adult population") (1)

Current: 4 million killed/year (1)

2030: 10 million killed (1)

"250 million children and adolescents who are alive today" will be killed, a third of them in developing countries (1)

50%

Quote to "50% killed: "A long-term tobacco user has a 50% chance of dying prematurely from tobacco-caused disease." (1)

19

April 1999: Fact Sheet 223/ Tobacco-Supporting the Tobacco Industry is bad Economics

Just: "Tobacco not only kills people, it also saps national treasuries" (1)

 

20

April 1999: Fact Sheet 224/ Tobacco - What Governments can do - Legislate and Educate

Current: 4 million killed/year, one death every 8 seconds (1)

"tobacco will also eventually kill 250 million children alive today" (1)

 

21

19.4.1999, Press Release WHO/23/Cigars and pipes as lethal as cigarettes, says new European study

Current: 4 million killed/year; over a million due to lung cancer (1)

 

22

26.4.1999, Press Release WHO/26, Cigarettes should be regulated like other drugs, says Director General

Current: 4 million killed; over 70% in developing countries (2)

2030: 10 million killed, "many of them in the prime of their lives" (2)

Conclusion could be: all smokers were killed; Quote Dr. Brundtland: "...keep its user addicted for life before killing the person".

23

24.5.1999: Press Release WHA/14, World Health Assembly paves way for Framework Convention on Tobacco Control

Current: 4 million killed (1)

2030: 10 million killed, over 70% in developing countries (1)

 

24

17.5.1999; Press Release WHA/2

Smokers: 1.1 billion (1)

Current: 4 million killed (1)

2030: 10 million killed (1)

 

25

27.5.1999, Press Release WHO/29/ Reducing the greatest single public health risk - prominent tobacco control activist wins prize

 

Conclusion could be: all smokers were killed; Quote Dr. Brundtland: "...keep its user addicted for life before killing the person".

26

16.6.1999, Press Release WHO/35/Environmental Tobacco Smoke seriously endangers children's health

"Infants of mothers who smoke have almost five times the risk of sudden infant death syndrome" (1)

 

27

20.-23.9.1999, Dr. Brundtland, Regional Committee for the Eastern Mediterranian

 

50%

Dr. Brundtland: "Young generations are lighting a fuse. The explosion will kill one out of two smokers ..." (4)

28

27.9.-1.10.1999, Dr. Brundtland, WHO Regional Committee for the Americas

 

50%

Dr. Brundtland: "Young generations are lighting a fuse. The explosion will kill one out of two smokers ..." (3)

29

13.-17.9.1999, Dr. Brundtland, Regional Committee for Europe

 

50%

Dr. Brundtland: "Young generations are lighting a fuse. The explosion will kill one out of two smokers ..." (4)

30

12.10.1999, Press Release WHO/59, WHO appoints outside experts to review alleged tobacco industry attempts to "undermine" un-wide tobacco control efforts

Current: 4 million killed (1)

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (1)

 

31

Oktober 1999, DG Brundtland, First Meeting of the Working group on the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control

Current: 4 million killed/year (1)

2030: 10 million killed (1)

China: 100 million of 300 million Chinese "now aged 0-29 will eventually be killed by tobacco" (1)

33% (China)

32

25.10.1999, Press Release WHO/62, WHO begins work on world's first public health treaty

Smokers: 1,2 billion; will rise to 1,6 billion in the first quarter of next century (1)

Current: 4 million killed/year (1)

2030: 10 million killed, over 70% in developing countries (1)

 

33

4.11.1999, WHO/65, WHO launches ground-breaking global campaign to counter tobacco industry deception

Current: 11,000 people killed a day/worldwide (1)

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (1)

 

34

15.11.1999: Dr. Brundtland, WHO International Conference on Tobacco and Health

Current: 4 million killed/year, 11,000 every day (1)

 

35

18.11.1999: Press Release WHO/71, "Kobe Declaration" calls for a halt to the tobacco menace among women and children

Smokers: 1,1 billion, 200 million women (2)

Women smokers will triple in next 25 years (2)

Current: 4 million killed/year, 500,000 of them women (2)

2025: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (2)

Conclusion could be: all smokers were killed; Quote Dr. Brundtland: "... the only product which, when used as desired, kills its consumer" (2)

36

7.3.2000, DG Brundtland, Commitee of Ambassadors of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States

Current: 3 million killed this year (4)

2020: 9 million killed (4)

China: "One out of three Chinese men under 30 will eventually die from tobacco-related disease - not in old age but in middle age, after having caused considerable expense for their health services." (4)

Remark: Dr. Brundtland reduced the deaths and the expected deaths. She gave no hint to 70% killed in developing countries

33% (see China)

37

8.3.2000, WHO/12, WHO: The major impact of tobacco is on health, not on small tobacco growers

Current: 4 million killed/year (1)

2030: 10 million killed, "with most of the deaths occuring in developing countries" (1)

 

38

27.3.2000, Dr. Brundtland, 2nd Meeting of the Working Group on the WHO FCTC

Smokers: 1.2 billion; increase to 1.6 billion by 2020 (2)

Tobacco kills "every 8 seconds" (1)

 

39

27.3.2000, Press Release WHO/22, WHO calls for Public Hearings on Tobacco

Current: over 4 million killed/year (1)

2030: 10 million killed, "out of which seven in 10 will be in developing countries" (1)

 

40

18.5.2000: Press Release WHO/35, WHO anniunces the holdings of public hearings on the Global Tobacco Control Convention

Current: 4 million killed/year (1)

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (1)

 

41

30.5.2000, Press Release WHO/38, Tobacco kills - don't be duped, says WHO on World no Tobacco Day

Smokers: 1.2 billion (1)

"Everyday, 11,000 people die due to a tobacco-related disease" (1)

 

42

31.5.2000, Dr. Brundtland, Address at the opening of World No Tobacco day

Current: 4 million killed/year, one person killed every 8 seconds (2)

"The tobacco industry looks for 11,000 new smokers every day to replace those who die from tobacco" (2)

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (2)

 

43

5.6.2000, Dr. Brundtland, Fifth Global Conference on Health Promotion

Current: 4 million killed/year (4)

one person killed every 8 seconds(1)

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (4)

 

44

6.8.2000, Dr. Brundtland, 11th Global Conference on Tobacco or Health

Current: 4 million killed/year (1)

one person killed every 8 seconds (2)

2030: 10 million killed (1)

 

45

7.8.2000, Dr. Brundtland, Address at the opening of the 11th Global Conference on Tobacco or Health

1998: 4 million killed/year (1)

Women: 1/6 of all smokers. "Half a million out of the four million people who suffer tobacco-related deaths are women" (2)

2030: 10 million killed, over 70% in the developing world (1)

 

46

8.8.2000, Press Release WHO/53, Higher taxes key to battle against tobacco, says new WHO/World Bank publication

Preventable: "about 10 million tobacco-related deaths (9 million of these in low- and middle-income countries)"; instrument: "raising cigarette taxes" (1)

Deaths: "1 billion people are expected to die from smoking in the 21st century - ten times more than those killed by tobacco throughout the 20th century" (2)

 

47

14.8.2000, Press Release WHO/51, One in five school children smoke in developing countries, new survey shows

"250 million children and teenagers alive today will eventually die as a result of their tobacco habit and that 70% of them will be in developing countries" (1)

 

48

29.8.2000, Dr. Brundtland, Speech at EXPO, Germany

Current: 4 million killed/year (2)

2030: 10 million killed, "more than 70%" in developing countries (2)

 

49

1.9.2000, Press Release WHO/54, Global response to call for public hearings on tobacco control "overwhelming"

Current: 4 million killed/year (1)

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (1)

 

50

4.9.2000, Dr. Bettcher, 9th International Congress of the World Federation of Public Health

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (1)

 

51

5.10.2000, Press Release, WHO/64, European Union directive banning tobacco advertising overturned

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (2)

 

51a

16 October, 2000

Dr. Brundtland, Framework Convention on Tobacco Control First Meeting of Intergovernmental Negotiating Body, Opening Statement

1998: 4 million killed (1)

2030: 10 million killed, "most of them in developing countries"

"Tobacco kills. Well over a billion people are addicted to tobacco: most started when very young." (1)

50%

"Let us remember tobacco remains the only legal consumer product that kills half of its regular users." (2)

52

Bettcher, 15.11.2000, Koalition gegen das Rauchen

2030: 10 million killed, 70% in developing countries (1)

 

 

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Hans-Joachim Maes and W+D Wissenschaft + Dokumentation GmbH, Berlin, 2001